Return-path: X-Andrew-Authenticated-as: 7997;andrew.cmu.edu;Ted Anderson Received: from beak.andrew.cmu.edu via trymail for +dist+/afs/andrew.cmu.edu/usr11/tm2b/space/space.dl@andrew.cmu.edu (->+dist+/afs/andrew.cmu.edu/usr11/tm2b/space/space.dl) (->ota+space.digests) ID ; Sun, 30 Dec 1990 01:35:00 -0500 (EST) Message-ID: Precedence: junk Reply-To: space+@Andrew.CMU.EDU From: space-request+@Andrew.CMU.EDU To: space+@Andrew.CMU.EDU Date: Sun, 30 Dec 1990 01:34:32 -0500 (EST) Subject: SPACE Digest V12 #690 SPACE Digest Volume 12 : Issue 690 Today's Topics: Could Iraq shoot down recon satellites? SECTION 8 OF 8 - U.S.T.R. PART I (uuencoded) Administrivia: Submissions to the SPACE Digest/sci.space should be mailed to space+@andrew.cmu.edu. Other mail, esp. [un]subscription notices, should be sent to space-request+@andrew.cmu.edu, or, if urgent, to tm2b+@andrew.cmu.edu ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Date: Fri, 14 Dec 90 01:30 CDT From: Bill Higgins-- Beam Jockey Subject: Could Iraq shoot down recon satellites? Original_To: SPACE Iraq is under the watchful eyes of a number of superpower reconnaissance satellites in low orbit. It's not a *large* number. Iraq has built its own ballistic missiles, variations on the Soviet "Scud." Suppose you're an Iraqi missile engineer. Suppose Saddam Hussein called you and your colleaques in and said, "Boys, I want you to turn those missiles into anti-satellite weapons as soon as you can." Could you do it? [Note that I am supposing you are a boy, too, a reasonable conjecture in the Iraqi defense establishment. (-:] --Delivery vehicles which can reach range R ought, in a naive analysis, to be able to reach an altitude of .7071R (that is, [sqrt(2)/2]R, assuming a 45-degree launch angle gets you the maximum range). R was about 500 km last I looked. --This should be enough to get you to orbital altitude, but not orbital speed. Then you put an essentially stationary payload in the path of a fast-moving satellite. This is more or less the method employed by the (defunct) American air-launched ASAT missile. --You don't need a precision-guided homing vehicle to damage your target satellite. Arrive at a point on the satellite's orbit just as the satellite is arriving there too. Fill some volume of space with small metal pellets. Oldest trick in the book. (The book is *The Exploration of Space*, Arthur C. Clarke, 1950.) --Hence the problem hinges on making the cloud of pellets (volume which has pellets above some density with high kill probablilty) larger than the probable error of the delivery vehicle. This is probably very tough. I know the Iraqi IRBMs are not very accurate. I should do some numbers. Guess I'll do a follow-up posting soon. --Tracking your targets is quite do-able. Are they listed in the Two-Line Elements? Could Iraq get these from Kelso's BBS in Ohio? If not, optical or radar tracking could be kluged up. It's be nice to have observations. --Recon sats can manuver. If you attack one, the allies will move all the others. And they will keep jinking if necessary (how often? Once a day?) I presume the Iraqis would be hard pressed to keep up with this. Therefore: --A surprise attack, taking out all adversary satellites in a short time, is called for. This is a one-shot deal, so you'd better play this card it until it's militarily useful. It could be used to cover preparations for a sudden attack. --If you are fully successful, the other guys will be blind until more low-orbit satellites can be launched. I am fairly sure the Soviets could have one up in a week or two. I am fairly sure the USAF will take several months. --If you are partly successful, you may at least create a gap in photo coverage, a recurring period of time when you may safely move your forces around without being observed optically. --This trick will not work on high-altitude satellites. I believe geosynchronous orbit is used mostly for signals-intelligence and missile-warning spacecraft, not high-resolution photoreconnaissance. So the allied capability will be somewhat crippled, but there will still be some intelligence flowing from space. --In particular, the ICBM-warning birds will probably see your launches, so your adversaries will know exactly what you're up to. (Hmm... can we make them look like gas-well fires? (-: I guess not.) --The usefulness of this idea is dubious in the current context of Iraqi military operations. It's still an interesting excercise. It may apply to some other IRBM-packing nation in some future conflict. O~~* /_) ' / / /_/ ' , , ' ,_ _ \|/ - ~ -~~~~~~~~~~~/_) / / / / / / (_) (_) / / / _\~~~~~~~~~~~zap! / \ (_) (_) / | \ | | Bill Higgins \ / Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory - - Bitnet: HIGGINS@FNALB.BITNET ~ Internet: HIGGINS@FNAL.FNAL.GOV SPAN/Hepnet/Physnet: 43011::HIGGINS ------------------------------ Date: Thu, 13 Dec 90 21:46:43 MST From: std_oler%HG.ULeth.CA@vma.cc.cmu.edu (Cary Oler) Subject: SECTION 8 OF 8 - U.S.T.R. PART I (uuencoded) X-St-Vmsmail-To: ST%"space+@andrew.cmu.edu" Uuencoded Document: Understanding Solar Terrestrial Reports - Part I ------------------ SECTION 8 of 8 Strip all of the lines from this message down to and including the "cut" line below. Save the resulting message. After you have obtained the other sections, combine them all into a single file (in the proper sequence). Then uudecode the file. This will decode the file and place the resulting document in the file "part1.doc". It may then be sent to a printer for printing. This is the last section of Part I of the document. Now collect the sections for Part II of Understanding Solar Terrestrial Reports and repeat the above procedure. When finished, you should have two files containing the two parts to this document ("part1.doc", and "part2.doc"). 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